Bản tin Hàng hòa ngày 21/01
I. Tin tức
- Tuần trước, Thượng viện Hoa Kỳ hoàn tất phê chuẩn Hiệp định thương mại Mỹ-Mexico-Canada (USMCA), thỏa thuận thương mại này thay thế cho Hiệp định thương mại tự do Bắc Mỹ (NAFTA) thông qua năm 1994. Dư luận kỳ vọng Quốc hội Canada cũng sẽ sớm thông qua. Jesus Seade, Phó Bộ trưởng Ngoại giao đặc trách Bắc Mỹ, đồng thời là nhà đàm phán thương mại cấp cao của Mexico, kỳ vọng thỏa thuận thương mại Mỹ-Trung sẽ có tác động cộng hưởng tích cực với thỏa thuận thương mại Bắc Mỹ mới sửa đổi, hiện thực hóa tiềm năng đầu tư mà Trung Quốc cam kết trong hai năm tới. Trong bài phát biểu ngày 19/01 tại bang Texas, Tổng thống D. Trump cũng tin tưởng thỏa thuận thương mại sẽ có lợi cho người nông dân Mỹ.
- Vào ngày 21/01 Phiên tòa luận tội tổng thống Donal Trump diễn ra. Kết quả của phiên tòa sẽ có ảnh hưởng nhất định tới tình hình kinh tế thế giới nói chung và thị trường hàng hóa nói riêng.
II. Phân tích biểu đồ kỹ thuật tuần 4/2020
1: Chỉ số US$Index – Chỉ số sức mạnh đồng Đô la mỹ
Biểu đồ Chart W1 US$Index
-Tuần 03/2020 vừa qua chỉ số US$Index hình thành 1 cây nến tăng. Giá đầu tuần gặp phải kháng cự 97.3 thì có giảm nhẹ nhưng đến cuối tuần tăng mạnh trở lại. Điều này cho thấy lực tăng vẫn mạnh và còn tiếp tục. Dự báo sang tuần, chỉ số này có thể tăng tiếp đến kháng cự 97.7. Nếu không phá qua được 97.7 thì chỉ sỗ này có xu hướng giảm lại vùng 96.3.
2: Bản tin Hàng hóa – Đậu tương
Biểu đồ Chart W1 Đậu tương
-Trong tuần 03/2020 giá đậu tương hình thành 1 cây nến giảm mạnh tạo thành mô hình nến đảo chiều giảm giá khi giá gặp phải kháng cự tại vùng 960. Dự báo sang tuần giá tiếp tục điều chỉnh giảm hướng đến vùng hỗ trợ 900-910. Xu hướng chính đang hình thành kênh tăng giá, ngắn hạn điều chỉnh giảm.
Biểu đồ Chart D1 Đậu tương
-Theo biểu đồ D1, Đậu tương tháng 03/2020 trong phiên ngày 17/01 hình thành 1 cây nến tăng giá có bóng nến dài 2 đầu. Giá mở phiên 924.3 xong giảm xuống 920.1 rồi tăng mạnh lên 933 trước khi kết phiên tại 929. Giá có xu hướng tăng lại hướng đến vùng kháng cự 938-940 sau đó tiếp tục giảm. Ngắn hạn giá giảm và tăng giá trong trung hạn. Nhà đầu tư cần chờ điều chỉnh xong để mua dài hạn.
Chiến lược: Canh mua dài hạn khi giá giảm về vùng hỗ trợ 900-910.
3: Bản tin Hàng hóa – Dầu đậu tương
Biểu đồ Chart W1 Dầu đậu tương
-Dầu đậu tương W03/2020 hình thành 1 cây nến giảm mạnh sau khi thỏa thuận thương mại Mỹ-Trung được ký và không đạt được kỳ vọng. Dự báo giá tiếp tục điều chỉnh giảm hướng đến hỗ trợ 32.4. Xu hướng chính là tăng, ưu tiên chờ điều chỉnh giảm xong thì mua trở lại.
Biểu đồ Chart D1 Dầu đậu tương
-Dầu đậu tương tháng 3/2020 trong phiên 17/01 hình thành 1 cây nến tăng. Giá mở phiên tại giá 33.09 xong giảm xuống 32.75 rồi tăng lên kết phiên tại 33.29. Điều này cho thấy xu hướng điều chỉnh giảm giá đã chậm lại do có lực lượng bên mua tham gia thị trường khá nhiều. Dự báo sang tuần giá có thể tăng trở lại vùng 33.6-34.1 sau đó tiếp tục điều chỉnh giảm xuống vùng hỗ trợ 32.4. Xu hướng ngắn hạn điều chỉnh giảm, xu hướng dài hạn là tăng.
-Chiến lược: Dài hạn chờ mua vùng 32.4
4: Bản tin Hàng hóa – Khô đậu tương
Biểu đồ Chart W1 khô đậu tương
-Khô đậu tương theo biểu đồ tuần thì hiện tại giá đang bị kẹt giữa tren tăng và trend giảm trong mô hình tam giác. Tuần 04 hình thành 1 cây nến giảm khá mạnh. Giá đầu tuần tăng test lại vùng kháng cự 308 sau đó đã giảm lại vùng hỗ trợ 300. Nhà đầu tư cần chờ đợi giá thoát khỏi mô hình này rồi mới giao dịch để an toàn hơn.
Biểu đồ Chart D1 khô đậu tương
-Giá khô đậu tương tháng 03/2020 trong phiên giao dịch ngày 17/01 hình thành 1 cây nến búa ngược tăng. Giá mở phiên tại 300.2 xong tăng lên 302 rồi kết phiên tại 300.5. Điều này cho thấy giá đã được hỗ trợ lực mua trở lại của thị trường. Giá hiện tại đang bị kẹt giữa trend tăng và trend giảm trong mô hình tam giác và đi sideway trong biên độ 300-307. Nhà đầu tư chỉ nên giao dịch ngắn hạn trong thị trường sideway hoặc chờ giá phá vỡ mô hình để có thể giao dịch theo xu hướng.
-Chiến lược:
Chờ mua dài vùng giá 293-296 STP 290
5: Bản tin Hàng hóa – Ngô
Biểu đồ W1 Ngô
-Giá ngô hiện tại đã break out khỏi trendline giảm và đang trong quá trình hình thành xu hướng tăng dài hạn. Tuần 03/2020 vừa qua hình thành 1 cây nến búa tăng tạo thành 1 cặp nến búa tăng. Giá sau khi giảm về cùng trendline hỗ trợ 375 đã tăng mạnh trở lại. Dự báo giá tiếp tục tăng trưởng trong thời gian tới . Xu hướng chính là tăng.
-Biểu đồ Chart D1 Ngô
Trong phiên giao dịch 17/01 giá ngô 3/2020 hình thành 1 cây nến tăng mạnh. Giá mở cửa 377 tăng mạnh đóng cửa tại 389.3. Giá đã được trendline tăng hỗ trợ mạnh và tăng ngược trở lại áp đảo lực bán xuống trước đó. Giá có xu hướng tăng trưởng tiếp trong giai đoạn tới, tuy nhiên giá đang gặp phải kháng cự tại vùng giá 292, nếu vượt qua kháng cự này thì xu hướng tăng tiếp hướng tới vùng 900.
-Chiến lược: chờ mua khi giá đóng cửa D1 vượt qua 292.
6: Bản tin Hàng hóa – Lúa Mì
Biểu đồ chart W1 Lúa mỳ
-Giá Lúa mỳ đang hình thành xu hướng tăng trung hạn, tuần 03/2020 vừa qua hình thành 1 cây nến tăng mạnh nhưng có bóng nến ở 2 đầu. Điều này cho thấy phe mua vẫn đang chiếm quyền kiểm soát. Tuy nhiên giá hiện tại đang tiến sát đến vùng kháng cự tại đỉnh củ 580. Dự báo giá tiếp tục tăng hướng đến vùng kháng cự 580 sau đó có thể điều chỉnh. Xu hướng chính là tăng ưu tiên chờ điều chỉnh xong mới mua.
Biểu đồ Chart D1 Lúa mì
-Giá Lúa mỳ đang hình thành xu hướng tăng trung hạn.Trong phiên 17/01 giá lúa mỳ tháng 3/2020 hình thành 1 cây tăng nằm trọn trong cây nến giảm trước đó. Giá mở cửa tại 565.6 đóng cửa tại 570.8. Biên độ của giá đã nhỏ lại và tích lũy tại vùng đỉnh. dự báo sang tuần giá có thể tăng tiếp lên vùng kháng cự 58x sau đó điều chỉnh giảm rồi tiếp tục tăng giá trở lại. Xu hướng trung hạn là tăng giá.
-Chiền lược: chờ mua khi giá điều chỉnh về vùng 545-550 hoặc chờ giá tăng tiếp đóng cửa trên 585 thì mua tiếp.
7: Bản tin Hàng hóa – Cà phê Arabica
Biểu đồ Chart W1 Coffee Arabica
-Tuần 03/2020 cà phê Arabica tiếp tục hình thành 1 cây nến giảm rất mạnh và chưa có dấu hiệu dừng lại. Giá hiện tại đang nằm trong vùng hỗ trợ 112 nhưng chưa có dấu hiệu của sự đảo chiều tăng trở lại. Dự báo giá có thể tiếp tục giảm hướng đến vùng hỗ trợ của trenline tại 106-108. Xu hướng chính là tăng ưu tiên chờ mua tại vùng hỗ trợ.
Biểu đồ Chart D1 Coffee Arabica
-Trong phiên giao dịch 17/01 giá cà phê Arabica tháng 3/2020 hình thành 1 cây nến giảm. Giá mở cửa 113 giảm xuống kết phiên tại 111.9. Giá đang nằm trong vùng hỗ trợ. Tuy nhiên, chưa có biểu hiện nào để có thể tăng ngay trở lại. Dự báo giá tiếp tục giảm xuống vùng hỗ trợ 106-109. Nhà đầu tư cần quan sát thêm biểu hiện của giá tại vùng giá hiện tại. Xu hướng dài hạn là tăng ưu tiên chờ mua.
-Chiến lược: chờ mua vùng giá 106-109 khi có mô hình nến tăng giá, STP 104, TP1 124; TP2 140
8: Bản tin Hàng hóa – Đồng – Coper
Biểu đồ Chart W1 Đồng
-Theo biểu đồ W1 thì giá đồng đã phá qua 1 trend giảm dài hạn kể từ năm 2003. Giá đang hình thành xu hướng tăng trung hạn. Week 03/2020 Đồng hình thành 1 cây nến tăng giá sau khi đã tích luy để tăng tiếp ở các tuần trước đó. Dự báo giá tiếp tục tăng trong tuần 04/2020. Xu hướng chính đang là tăng ưu tiên mua.
Biểu đồ Chart D1 Đồng
-Giá đồng hiện tại đã vượt qua trendline giảm trung hạn và đang hình thành kênh tăng giá. Trong phiên 20/01 giá đồng tháng 3/2020 hình thành 1 cây nến Doji thể hiện sự lưỡng lự do dự của thị trường. Giá mở cửa tại 284.67 đóng cửa tại 284.68. Dự báo giá có sự tích lũy và được hỗ trợ tốt ở vùng giá 280 và tăng trở lại. Xu hương dài hạn là tăng.
-Chiến lược: chờ mua khi giá về vùng 280 hoặc mua khi giá phá đóng cửa trên 289 taget hướng tới tại vùng 295
9: Bản tin Hàng hóa – Đường – Sugar
Biểu đồ chart W1 Sugar
-Theo biểu đồ W1 của đường, giá đường hiện tại đang hình thành kênh tăng giá sau khi đã vượt qua được trend giảm của tuần. Tuần 03/2020 tiếp tục hình thành 1 cây nến tăng mạnh. Giá có xu hướng tăng tiếp hướng đến vùng kháng cự 15. Xu hướng chính là tăng ưu tiên mua.
Biểu đồ Chart D1 Đường
-Trong phiên giao dịch ngày 17/01 đường tháng 3/2020 hình thành 1 cây nến doji nằm trọn trong nến trước đó. Giá mở cửa tại 14.44 xong giảm xuống 14.34 rồi tăng kết phiên tại 14.45. Giá đang tạo mô hình inside bar tích lũy dao động với biên độ nhỏ dần sau đó có thể break out tăng tiếp đến vùng kháng cự mạnh 15. Xu hướng chính là tăng giá.
10: Bản tin Hàng hóa – Coton – bông sơi
Biểu đồ W1 Coton
-Theo biểu đồ W1 của bông sơi, giá bông sợi đã tăng vượt qua trend giảm dài hạn và đang hình thành kênh tăng giá. Tuần W03 vừa qua hình thành cây nến búa có chân dài khi giá đang năm trong vùng kháng cự của các đáy cũ trước đó. Giá có xu hướng điều chỉnh nhẹ sau đó tăng tiếp hướng đến vùng kháng cự 78-80. Xu hướng chính là tăng.
Biểu đồ Chart D1 Coton
-Cotton tháng 3/2020 trong phiên giao dịch ngày 17/01 hình thành 1 cây nến tăng mạnh sau khi giá quay trở lại test vùng hỗ trợ mới vượt qua tại 69.7. Giá mở cửa70.03 sau đó tăng kết phiên tại 71.29. Nếu giá tăng vượt qua được 71.9 thì xu hương tăng tiếp diễn hướng đến vùng 77-78. Nếu không vượt qua được giảm điều chỉnh giảm lại vùng 68.5.
Chiến lược: canh mua khi giá quay lại vùng 68.5 hoặc mua tiếp khi giá đóng cửa vượt qua 72.
- Lưu ý:
- Tất cả các chiến lược giao dịch cần xem thêm tín hiệu xác nhận, các mô hình nến, xu hướng trước khi vào lênh.
- Nếu lệnh trong ngày không khớp thì hạn chế vào lệnh đuổi theo thị trường.
- Chiến lược update mới hàng ngày phụ thuộc diễn biến thị trường.
- Tuân thủ tuyệt đối quản lý vốn tỉ lệ đòn bẩy max1:5 và đặt STP <3%.
Chúc quý nhà đầu tư giao dịch hiệu quả!
Lê Đức Vang – Chuyên viên phân tích kĩ thuật.
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